Saturday, May 4, 2013

Who Has Edge in OKC Thunder-Memphis Grizzlies 2nd Round Matchup?

The Memphis Grizzlies and Oklahoma City Thunder have two things in common. They both took down their first-round opponents in six games, and they both did so in impressive fashion.

Even though the Grizzlies own the season series, 2-1, over the Thunder, that means absolutely nothing now that Russell Westbrook is watching games instead of dominating them.

Without Westbrook, Kevin Durant is left as the lone star in Oklahoma City. Sure, he has supporting members like Serge Ibaka, Kevin Martin and Derek Fisher, but when the rubber meets the road, Durant is their main man.

They can beat you in the paint with their twin towers, Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol, or they can burn you on the perimeter with Mike Conley and Tony Allen.

Both are technically small-market teams, but you could argue that the Thunder have more star power with Durant running the show.

In his three games without Westbrook, Durant is averaging 35.3 points, 10 rebounds and 5.3 assists per game, while shooting 55.4 percent from the field.

The only problem is that Durant put up that production playing against the Rockets, who happen to give up the 28th-most points per game with an average of 102.5 points per game.

While Francisco Garcia covered him like a blanket for a majority of the games, Durant will meet a whole other monster when he goes up against Tony Allen and Tayshaun Prince.

In addition to the individual defense the Grizzlies will throw at Durant, Memphis also plays much, much better team defense than the Rockets, which means the Thunder won't be getting as many wide open perimeter jumpers as they did against James Harden and his defense-less crew.

I'm not saying that the Thunder aren't a better team than the Grizzlies, because even without Westbrook they have enough talent to compete with them.

The difference, though, is that instead of Durant battling against a single player, he will truly be battling against an entire team because the Grizzlies play team basketball as well as anyone in the NBA.

While both teams closed out their series, there's no doubt that the Grizzlies have a bit more momentum after winning four straight games to top the Clippers. Traveling to a raucous OKC crowd will certainly minimize that momentum, but as the Grizzlies showed they can win on the road.

Kendrick Perkins and Serge Ibaka aren't a weak frontcourt by any stretch of the imagination, but when you stack them up against the likes of Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph they don't even compare.

Having a significant advantage in the paint will benefit the Grizzlies emensly on both sides of the ball, and it will allow them to control the pace of the game and slow the Thunder's transition offense down.

Take Game 6 against the Clippers for example. The Grizzlies had seven of their nine players in double digits—Mike Conley (23), Zach Randolph (23), Tony Allen (19), Jerryd Bayless (18), Tayshaun Prince (11), Marc Gasol (10) and Quincy Pondexter (10).

Instead of trying to balance their production, the Thunder are forced to get Durant the ball and let him create offense for himself and his teammates with penetration.

With the Grizzlies there are seven or eight players who can add significant production. While guys like Kevin Martin and Reggie Jackson emerged in Game 6 for the Thunder, it won't be nearly as easy to score playing against the team that gives up the least points per game, with an average of just 89.3 points.

You've undoubtedly heard the mantra "defense wins championships." Well, it's true, and in this case it actually sounds more appropriate like this—"defense wins second-round playoff series."

Riding their momentum from a dominant four-game stretch against the Clippers, the Grizzlies are in the driver seat against the Thunder. They have all the momentum and they aren't suffering from any injuries.

In addition to that, the Grizzlies are a team that loves to play physical basketball, and while the Thunder can bang with the best of them, they aren't necessarily built to play that way.

Guys like Tony Allen, Zach Randolph and Keyon Dooling will pester the Thunder and get under their skin. That is where we'll see just what kind of leader Kevin Durant truly is.

Durant and the Thunder have much more to lose in this series, and that puts them at a disadvantage when the series tips on Sunday.

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